Marin County Market Report -Spring Has Sprung!

The Marin real estate market is coming back, faster than just about anyone expected.

Transactions are WAY up - 183 closed transactions in March of this year, vs. 125 last March. Pricing has stayed relatively flat - average sale price is actually down, from $898,176 to $829,796 this year. But the median is up - from $639,176 to $705,000.

What does it all mean? Transactions have been abnormally low for three years. There’s pent up demand now on both the buy and sell side, because people still have babies, retire, and change jobs, even in recessions. So all that demand is finding it’s way into lots of transactions for buyers willing to pull the trigger, and sellers who are willing to price realistically.

This is not a return to the go-go days of 2003 and 2004. Prices are not going up, at least not dramatically right now. But well priced homes in great areas are selling quickly, in all price ranges.  The hotttest trend we see right now is “walkability.” People want to be able to walk to places from their homes, so downtown Mill Valley is hot, as is Larkspur, especially in the $2 Million plus range. In fact, we’re adapting marketing materials for all of our listings to talk about that where appropriate!

Inventory is very high, as there are now 1,433 homes on the market. But an amazing 31% of those are in contract, which is a balanced market in our book. Here’s a quick rundown on price categories:

Under $750,000 - 43% in contract, SELLERS market.
$750,000-$1,500,000 - 23% in contract, BUYERS market, almost balanced!
$1,500,000 + - 18% in contract, BUYERS market

The numbers in the $1,500,000+ category are the strongest we have seen in quite some time. Jumbo money is getting very affordable again, and that’s the key to this market.

The other big driver continues to be school systems. Corte Madera is strong, with 34% in contract, as is Larkspur with 37% in contract. But Sausalito, which has a pretty good mix of more affordable condominiums as well as high end homes, has only 10% in contract. So it’s not just price driving this, we think good school systems continue to drive demand at this time of year as city buyers look to move to a place where the land is beautiful and the schools have high API scores and are public!

And finally, the comeback player of the year goes to Novato: right now 44% of homes are in contract there. They were the first to decline, the first come back, and hopefully, will be a harbinger of things to come for the rest of the county.

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