Marin County Real Estate Sales: Are we bottoming out?

They say that nobody rings a bell at the bottom of the market. Or the top, for that matter.

So that started us thinking, what does the bottom of the real estate market look like? Not just from a numbers standpoint, but from a more qualitative standpoint. Here are some of our thoughts, as well as what we think the status is.

1. Real estate news and home values move off the front page of the paper and back into the business section where it belongs.

Status: Not quite there yet. The Marin IJ still insists on making home values front page news. When values stop changing, they won’t be news anymore.

2. People think about their home as a place to live, not an investment, or a piggy bank.

Status: Not quite there yet. We’re talking to lots of buyers every day, and there is still a lot of hope out there for skyrocketing prices once they’re in. Maybe someday, but don’t bet the ranch on it right now.

3. Realtors start buying property for themselves.

Status: Check. We’re among them, as a matter of fact, and have invested in another property with a partner, this time in Mill Valley. One of the other offers was from another realtor, and a third realtor backed out at the last moment. This is what we do for a living. Maybe we’re drinking our own Kool-aid, but we think our instincts are right.

4. Investors and builders start buying.

Status: Check. A recent article in the San Francisco Chronicle stated that investors are starting to jump back into the market. A big Los Angeles based builder just bought a large ranch in Novato for commercial development. The company that purchased the Fireman’s Fund building in Novato just announced plans for a major expansion of space and housing.

5. Despair and negativity are everywhere.

Status: Just about there. They call it capitulation in the stock market. We’re feeling it out there in the housing market too. Lots of properties that were for sale are being rented, and some with long term contracts.

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