Marin Real Estate Market Report November 2008
A Tale of Two Markets
Looking at the real estate market gross numbers, you’d think much hadn’t changed in Marin county real estate all year. Right now, we’re at 22% of available homes in contract. A Buyers Market,to be sure, as a Balanced market is when we reach 25% of homes in contract. It is also relatively unchanged since the beginning of 2008, when percent in contract was 20%.
But another way to look at this is based on geography. So we split the county into two parts, Novato-San Rafael, and and then everything else to the south and west. What emerges is fascinating.
In the Novato-San Rafael market, we’re in a balanced market, as 32% of available properties are in contract. No doubt about it, properties are starting to move there. It makes sense because when the downturn started a couple of years ago, it started in Novato, and then San Rafael. So they are further along the road to recovery than the rest of the County.
In the Southern-Central Marin market, it is very different. Only 14% of homes are in contract. So the pain that was being felt in Northern Marin last year is really starting to affect the southern part of the county.
We theorize that the stock market downturn has really hurt southern Marin, for two reasons. First, financial services is a big part of the local economy, and they have been hit the hardest. Second, everyone feels poorer when their stock portfolio is worth half of what it used to be.
Another way to look at this is by price. In the $700,000 or less segment, an astonishing 38% of properties are in contract. That is a sellers market! Over $700,000, that number drops to 12%. First time buyers are figuring out that low prices, much of it driven by short sales and REOs, are creating an opportunity to jump into the Marin market.
So what does all of this mean?
- If you’re a buyer, this is an amazing time to buy real estate. Opportunity is everywhere, in every price segment.
- The market is looking for a bottom, and may be finding it. As inventory at the low end gets scooped up, the positive sales numbers should start moving into higher price points and the southern portion of the market.
Marin County is still the best place to live in the world. And there’s no more land. Five years from now, will you be one of the people with a big grin on your face saying, “Yea, I bought in 2008″?
All data from MLS, Nov. 2008
[…] First time buyers are figuring out that low prices, much of it driven by short sales and REOs, are creating an opportunity to jump into the Marin market. So what does all of this mean? - If you’re a buyer, this is an amazing time to buy … Original post […]
[…] unknown wrote an interesting post today onMarin Real Estate Market Report November 2008 - Marin Real Estate …Here’s a quick excerptA Tale of Two Markets Looking at the real estate market gross numbers, youd think much hadnt changed in Marin county real estate all year. Right now, were at 22% of available homes in contract. […]
[…] unknown wrote an interesting post today onMarin Real Estate Market Report November 2008 - Marin Real Estate …Here’s a quick excerptA Tale of Two Markets Looking at the real estate market gross numbers, youd think much hadnt changed in Marin county real estate all year. Right now, were at 22% of available homes in contract. […]
[…] unknown wrote an interesting post today onMarin Real Estate Market Report November 2008 - Marin Real Estate …Here’s a quick excerptA Tale of Two Markets Looking at the real estate market gross numbers, youd think much hadnt changed in Marin county real estate all year. Right now, were at 22% of available homes in contract. […]
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[…] unknown wrote an interesting post today onMarin Real Estate Market Report November 2008 - Marin Real Estate …Here’s a quick excerptA Tale of Two Markets Looking at the real estate market gross numbers, youd think much hadnt changed in Marin county real estate all year. Right now, were at 22% of available homes in contract. […]