Marin County Real Estate Mid Year Market Report Part 2

Here is Part 2 of our mid year analysis of what is happening in Marin County real estate.

3. Schools are more important than ever.

The reason many first time home buyers buy is because they have children approaching school age, and Marin public schools are some of the best in California, not to mention free. So areas that represent good value for homes plus good schools are doing better than those that aren’t.

For example, Sausalito schools, as measured by API scores, do not do as well as most of the districts in Marin. Home sales on a unit basis there are off 52% from year to date. On the other hand,Fairfax has good home values, and good schools. Unit sales there are up 16% this year.

San Rafael is also an interesting market. There are two elementary school districts there, Dixie and San Rafael. Dixie Schools have some of the best API scores in Marin. San Rafael Elementary varies pretty widely.

How does that affect home prices? We overlaid the school district maps onto MLS to find out. Right now, in the San Rafael Elementary district, there are 75 three bedroom homes available, with an average list price of $676,399. In the Dixie School District, there are only 22 three bedroom homes available, with an average list price of $856,763.

Interestingly, San Rafael has far more higher end homes available, because they have some very upscale areas. But for the average entry level home, people are asking a premium for Dixie schools.

4. Banks are getting better at short sales.

We are actually seeing short sales close, for two reasons. First, banks are learning how to handle these types of transactions, and are now getting procedures into place that everyone understands.

Second, they are also simply hiring more people to handle the transactions, which is helping to work off the backlog. That’s good news for everyone, because the sooner short sales are worked out of the system, the closer everyone will be to a normal market.

5. Even though foreclosures declined 18% in the second quarter of this year, expect an increase in the last six months of the year.

One big reason for the decline is the state moratorium on foreclosures, which ends in September. Unless a new law is passed that stops them, there is undoubtedly a backlog that is waiting to go through the system.

Price points, we think, will vary widely. No one is immune. For example, Sugar Loaf Drive is one of Tiburon’s most expensive streets. One house is in preforeclosure status there, and a second was recently sold at auction. In both cases, the mortgage amount was over $5 Million.

Part 3 coming soon - who is really control of this market?

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