Market Update: 12/3/06. Market Tightening, Inventory Declining…
Yes, it is still a Buyer’s Market in Marin County, but the trend is clearly picking up as homebuyers start to buy again.
The most telling number is this: There are now MORE homes in contract in Marin County than there were on September 15 of this year. As of December 1, there were 279 homes in contract, and on September 15 there were 264.
That is significant because September is typically a much stronger month for sales than December is, as people come back from vacations and start shopping for homes again.
We’ve noticed an increase in activity, on all fronts, and the overall percentage in contract has been climbing for several weeks now. Part of this is attributable to people taking their homes off the market, but a large part of it is increased demand, relative to what normally happens.
In fact, overall, the market is almost exactly where it was one year ago in terms of number of homes in contract, and last year was a much stronger year for sales.
Why the increase? First, interest rates are great, by historical standards. The 30 year fixed continues to be one of our most popular mortgages,and at 6.25%, it’s easy to see why. Second, smart buyers know that there are plenty of people out there who need to sell, and have been on market for a while, so they’re ready to make a deal. Savvy buyers know that Marin County real estate is historically, an outstanding investment.
We consider it a Buyer’s Market when percent in contract is below 25%, and a normal market at 25% to 35%. We’re right on the edge in Marin County at 25%, but in the Under $1 Million segment, we’re in a normal market, with percent in contract at 27%.
There’s also some places that are still red hot. More on that later this week. Here are the numbers as of 12/1/06.
11/30/200Â Â 12/1/2006
Total Marin Homes Available: Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 930 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1,118
Total Marin Homes In Contract: Â Â Â Â Â 278 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 279
Total Marin, % In Contract: Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 25%
Marin Under $1MM, Available          502        661
Marin Under $1MM, In Contract: Â Â Â Â Â 168 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 181
Marin Under $1MM,% In Contract: Â Â Â 33% Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 27%
There’s lots more data available. If you would like a full report, including city by city data, please email me at bravasio@fhallen.com and I’d be happy to send you a complimentary report. Not the usual “market analysis” which is a list of sold properties, but a a real analysis of what’s going on.
[…] The source is different than mine. I use MLS statistics, the IJ refers to DataQuick, but the stories are similar, I believe. In my summary two weeks ago, I said the market was firming up, and this story is reaffirming that. […]
[…] We’re almost at the end of 2006. As noted in previous posts, the market is showing some signs of firming up, partly because we are now measuring against numbers from a year ago that were declining. […]