January Market Report Marin County Real Estate: Prices Falling, Buyers Jumping In

As Jim Cramer says, “There’s always a market somewhere,” and our job is to find it for you!

Year end numbers are in, and are shocking. In 2008, Marin County experienced the largest drop in average sale price in the 43 years that we have tracking number.Average sale price fell nearly 13%, from $1,220,683 to $1,066,544. The largest drop before that had been in 1992, when average sale price fell 1.4%. Of course, that is way, way below but other parts of California have experienced,but still unprecedented.

Average sale price is a lousy barometer, but it is the one the media uses, so we like to look at it. More relevant though is that price per square foot fell by 6%, from $604 a foot to $568 a foot.

And there were only 2,075 units sold. That is the lowest number of transactions in Marin County real estate since 1982, and well below the average of the last 42 years of 2,806.

A big part of what is going on here is that the condo market, especially in Novato and San Rafael, is on fire. So with a small number of transactions, a disproportionate number are smaller value condo deals, and that drives the average sale price down.

Some cities actually showed a slight increase in average sale price, like Mill Valley. But a big part of the story there is people are buying bigger homes as property gets redeveloped. Average cost per square foot actually declined in Mill Valley, from $766 foot last year to $718 a foot in 2008. In other words, people are getting more for their money, just as they are just about everywhere in Marin.

Entry level homes are hot throughout Marin. Percent of available homes in contract is an excellent gauge of the strength of the market, and in Marin County last week, the number for the County was 21%, a Buyer’s market.

But for homes under $750,000, that number is 31% - a balanced market. And for homes under $550,000, the level at about which you can get a conventional $417,000 loan, the number in contract is 40%! That is a Seller’s market!.

From what we can tell from reports from other agents,  as well as our own experience, lots of those are first time buyers, not just investors.  We put two buyers into contract in the last two weeks under $900,000, and in both cases, there were multiple offers - one had three offers, one had two. Both were great values, for different reasons - just too good to pass up.

And as prices fall, we are seeing more every day…stay tuned for more deals as they come on market.

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