Marin County Market Report: Entry Level Buyers Jumping In

The current real estate market in Marin County is a tale of extremes.

In a nutshell, entry level homes are very strong, mid-level home sales are weak, and luxury home sales are very weak.

This continues the trend we’ve seen for the last few months. Statistically, 35% of homes under $750,000 are in contract, which is nearly a Sellers Market. We’re seeing evidence of that at our open home listings, where traffic is very high, even last Sunday when it poured rain all day.

A lot of that strength in Northern Marin is still driven by short sales and REOs. Novato is the strongest market in the county, with 36% of homes in contract. Of available listings, 54% are either short sales or REOs! REOs and short sales are still pretty infrequent in Southern Marin,

The mid-level move up market is less robust, as only 13% of homes from $750,000 to $1,400,000 are in contract. That is clearly a Buyers Market. Paradoxically though, there is a shortage of good inventory in the $1,000,000 range. We have several buyers actively looking in this range, and they are having a tough time finding the right property.

In the over $1,400,000 range, there is very little activity. Only 7.5% of homes are in contract, which is about as low as we have seen.

There are buyers out looking hard in all price ranges. But what seems to be happening in the upper ranges is that Buyers are writing offers well below asking price, and Sellers are not countering or sitting. We know this from our own experience on both sides of the table, but other agents are reporting exactly the same thing. So Buyers have one idea of market value, and Sellers another. When that situation resolves itself, transactions will pick up again in the upper price ranges.

When that will happen is impossible to say. A drop in jumbo mortgage rates, as many are predicting for second quarter, could be the impetus to get things moving again.

(All data from BAREIS MLS)

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