Marin County Real Estate: Mid Year Market Report Part 1

Mid Year Market Report

It’s early August. We’re back from vacation. The market is taking is starting to take it’s normal down time for August, so we thought it made sense to revisit the market in depth to try and help our clients understand where the market may turn next. And in our ongoing effort to provide the absolute most up to date, insightful, and accurate information on Marin real estate, we’re continuing to find new ways to look at the wealth of statistics available through MLS, as you’ll see below.

Here’s what we think are the most important trends in the market right now.

1. We believe the entry level market, homes under $750,000, has found a bottom, and may even be seeing a little price appreciation.

We said in January first time home buyers would drive the market, and they are. The government, and the Fed, want people to buy homes. And thanks to the first time home buyers tax credit, low interest rates, and falling prices, they are.

Homes under $750,000 are at a rather astonishing 44% in contract. That is, by our measure, a Seller’s market. It also fits with what we see in the market every day. Solid houses in good school districts are getting snapped up pretty quickly, often with multiple offers (remember those? that’s when more than one buyer wants a house!), as first time home buyers are seizing one of the best buying opportunities in Marin County in years.

But here is why we can really state it is finding bottom. We started analyzing sold price per square foot by quarter, and it has been consistently dropping in this price range for two years - until this quarter. It actually ROSE from $328 a foot, to $340 a foot in the second quarter of this year. One quarter does not a trend make, but that is a significant change in direction that we will continue to monitor, and the first change in direction in two years.

2. Because entry level homes are selling, move-up homes are starting to sell as well.

Move-up homes, which we define as $750,000 to $1,500,000, are now at 23% in contract. That is ALMOST a balanced market!

It makes sense. The activity we are seeing at the entry level is allowing many of those people to take equity out and buy a larger home.

It also helps that Sellers are becoming more realistic. Prices have come down, and Sellers that acknowledge that are able to find willing buyers.

Next:School Systems Are Driving Sales

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