Marin Real Estate Market Report October 2008
Market Report
Well, it’s been an interesting month, to say the least, for Marin County real estate. Wall Street got its bailout, promptly tanked, and the real estate market has been, well, a bit tumultuous.
Is it affecting Marin? Sure. The uncertain climate has lots of people, buyers and sellers, sitting on the sidelines. From Oct. 1 to Oct. 15, for homes between $1mm and $2mm in Southern Marin, not a single one went into contract! Of the 45 homes available, typically, at five or six wouls sell in that time frame, even this year.
We’re projecting 1700 closed sales in Marin this year. If we’re right, that would be the lowest number of real estate transactions in Marin County since 1982! The total number of licensed real estate agents in Marin County is 1600. Do the math on that one, and you realize why so many agents say they are ready to leave the business.
In any market however, there is opportunity. First, Novato is, by statistical measures, practically a Seller’s Market! That’s not a misprint. As of today, 33% of available homes in Novato are in contract. Here’s the difference, though. Of the 116 in contract, 79 are either short sales, REO’s, in foreclosure, or have been given notices of default. Anyone in those four categories is usually a motivated seller, and will price accordingly.
By contrast, the total number of REO’s, short sales, foreclosures, or defaults available from Larkspur south is 14, according to MLS. So while these categories are big factors in Novato, they are still negligible in Southern and Central Marin.
Another hot area: anything under $750,000. In this category, for all of Marin, 35% of available listings are in contract! The REO/short sale category is a factor in this also, but there has also been really good strength among first time home buyers, who are seeing terrific bargains, and a great opportunity to get into the market.
Amazingly, condos under $750,000 are even hotter - 48% are in contract, as first time home buyers as well as investors are buying them. Most of this activity is in Novato and San Rafael, where the downturn started. Hopefully it will follow the same pattern and head south next.
Because of the big uptick in activity in the entry level market,average sale price for the County has been declining, and will probably show a decline for the year in the 4% range. If so, that will be the first decline in average Marin sale price since 1992! Get ready for MASSIVE headlines in the Marin IJ if that happens. And as usual, they’ll probably miss the real story - that the lower end of the market is, dare we say, hot!
[…] Bob Ravasio wrote an interesting post today onMarin Real Estate Market Report October 2008Here’s a quick excerptWe’re projecting 1700 closed sales in Marin this year. If we’re right, that would be the lowest number of real estate transactions in Marin County since 1982! The total number of licensed real estate agents in Marin County is 1600. … […]
[…] Bob Ravasio wrote an interesting post today onMarin Real Estate Market Report October 2008Here’s a quick excerptWe’re projecting 1700 closed sales in Marin this year. If we’re right, that would be the lowest number of real estate transactions in Marin County since 1982! The total number of licensed real estate agents in Marin County is 1600. … […]
[…] Original post by Marin Real Estate Insider […]
[…] Original post by Marin Real Estate Insider […]
[…] Bob Ravasio wrote an interesting post today onMarin Real Estate Market Report October 2008Here’s a quick excerptIf we’re right, that would be the lowest number of real estate transactions in Marin County since 1982! The total number of licensed real estate agents in Marin County is 1600. Do the math on that one, and you realize why so many agents … […]
[…] Bob Ravasio wrote an interesting post today onMarin Real Estate Market Report October 2008Here’s a quick excerptIf we’re right, that would be the lowest number of real estate transactions in Marin County since 1982! The total number of licensed real estate agents in Marin County is 1600. Do the math on that one, and you realize why so many agents … […]
[…] Bob Ravasio wrote an interesting post today onMarin Real Estate Market Report October 2008Here’s a quick excerptIf we’re right, that would be the lowest number of real estate transactions in Marin County since 1982! The total number of licensed real estate agents in Marin County is 1600. Do the math on that one, and you realize why so many agents … […]
[…] Bob Ravasio wrote an interesting post today onMarin Real Estate Market Report October 2008Here’s a quick excerptWe’re projecting 1700 closed sales in Marin this year. If we’re right, that would be the lowest number of real estate transactions in Marin County since 1982! The total number of licensed real estate agents in Marin County is 1600. … […]
[…] Bob Ravasio wrote an interesting post today onMarin Real Estate Market Report October 2008Here’s a quick excerptIf we’re right, that would be the lowest number of real estate transactions in Marin County since 1982! The total number of licensed real estate agents in Marin County is 1600. Do the math on that one, and you realize why so many agents … […]
[…] Bob Ravasio wrote an interesting post today onMarin Real Estate Market Report October 2008Here’s a quick excerptWe’re projecting 1700 closed sales in Marin this year. If we’re right, that would be the lowest number of real estate transactions in Marin County since 1982! The total number of licensed real estate agents in Marin County is 1600. … […]
[…] Bob Ravasio wrote an interesting post today onMarin Real Estate Market Report October 2008Here’s a quick excerptIf we’re right, that would be the lowest number of real estate transactions in Marin County since 1982! The total number of licensed real estate agents in Marin County is 1600. Do the math on that one, and you realize why so many agents … […]